ABSTRACT
This study investigates the impact of climate and non-climate factors on cereal production (CP) in Somalia from 1990 to 2019. The study used the
autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling approach to analyze the effect of Carbon dioxide, temperature, rainfall, land under CP, and rural
population on CP. The study employed the ARDL model to determine the long-run and short-run effects of the variables. The results indicate that all
variables negatively impacted CP, except for land under CP, which had a positive effect on CP in both the short and long run. These findings suggest
that policymakers should prioritize investment in land management practices to increase CP in Somalia. The study’s results have important implications
for stakeholders in the agricultural sector, highlighting the need for sustainable land use policies and climate change adaptation measures to ensure
the country’s food security.
Keywords: Climate Factors, Non-climatic Factors, Autoregressive Distributed Lag, Somalia
JEL Classifications: Q54, Q56