This study aimed to investigate the complex landscape of climate finance, assessing the adequacy, predictability, and
implications for sustainable development in least developed countries (LDCs). This study is motivated by the pressing
need to assess the adequacy, predictability, and implications of climate finance for sustainable development in least
developed countries (LDCs). Employing an econometric framework, this study utilizes ARIMA models to analyze time
series data (from 2000 to 2021) on climate finance. The analysis revealed a notable gap between the needed and actual
climate funding received by LDCs. Despite an annual requirement of $93.7 billion according to the UK-based International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), LDCs have only received an average of $14.8 billion annually
since 2015. The study suggests that climate funding for LDCs lacks predictability and falls short in meeting their needs,
potentially facing an 80% decrease by 2030 under certain scenarios. It advocates for a strategic revamp in climate finance
mechanisms to ensure adequacy and predictability, urging policymakers and international funding bodies to adopt more
robust, fair, and needs-based approaches to climate financing. This research emphasizes the responsibility of developed
nations and global agencies in bridging the considerable funding gap faced by LDCs. By integrating advanced forecasting techniques with a comprehensive analysis of global economic and political factors, this study sheds light on the
challenges LDCs encounter in securing stable and sufficient climate finance, stressing the urgency for systemic reforms
in global climate finance policies.
Keywords Climate finance · ARIMA models · Sustainable development · Funding gap · Global climate policy