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The Asymmetric Effects of Government Debt on GDP Growth: Evidence from Somalia

Mohamed, Abdulrazak Nur (2023) The Asymmetric Effects of Government Debt on GDP Growth: Evidence from Somalia. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning.

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Abstract

With the recent worldwide financial crisis, government debt has become a focal point
of economic attention. This fundamental economic concept reflects the amount a
nation owes in international loans. Rapid loan accumulation has brought Somalia's
economy to the brink of a debt crisis, threatening the long-term economic stability of
the region. This study examines the asymmetric relationship between government
debt and GDP growth in Somalia from 1980 to 2020. It employs non-linear
autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methods to investigate the asymmetric
effects of government debt on GDP growth. The findings indicate a negative
relationship between government debt and GDP growth; an increase in government
debt significantly impairs GDP growth. The estimated long-run parameters for
negative shocks to government debt are -0.711 and -2.88, respectively, suggesting
that a decrease in government debt will lead to an increase in GDP growth. These
results argue that for Somalia to stimulate GDP growth, it must maintain its
obligations at a rational level and strive for fiscal sustainability. Policy implications
include fiscal debt management, prioritizing public investments, and increasing
revenue through tax reforms, anti-corruption measures, and promoting business
initiatives to finance public investments and reduce debt.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: A General Works > AC Collections. Series. Collected works
Divisions: Faculty of Accounting
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email crd@smiad.edu.so
Date Deposited: 20 Sep 2025 11:26
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2025 11:26
URI: https://repository.simad.edu.so/id/eprint/336

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