This study analyzes the influence of economic growth, energy consumption, and industrialization on CO2
emissions in Somalia, employing time
series data from 1990 to 2019 and utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to assess both short- and long-term interactions. This
research offers empirical insights into the contribution of Somalia’s emerging economy and limited industrialization to environmental deterioration.
The results indicate that economic expansion and energy usage are the major contributors to CO2
emissions in Somalia. A 1% increase in GDP per
capita results in a 0.80% increase in CO2
emissions, demonstrating a strong correlation between economic growth and environmental deterioration.
A 1% increase in energy consumption leads to a 0.95% rise in CO2
emissions, underscoring the nation’s significant dependence on fossil fuels and
suboptimal energy utilization. Nonetheless, industrialization does not demonstrate a statistically significant effect on CO2
emissions, indicating that
Somalia’s industrial sector is undeveloped and has not substantially contributed to pollution levels. The short-run dynamics indicate that energy
consumption significantly and immediately affects CO2
emissions, but economic expansion does not have a direct short-term influence. The error
correction term (ECT = −0.2655, P < 0.01) indicates that deviations from long-run equilibrium rectify at a rate of 26.55% annually, so affirming
the stability of the link among economic development, energy consumption, and environmental deterioration. These findings highlight the pressing
necessity for Somalia to implement sustainable energy regulations, enhance industrial efficiency, and limit CO2
emissions. Policy proposals encompass
investing in renewable energy, enhancing environmental governance, and incorporating green industrial practices to reconcile economic development
with environmental sustainability. This study offers essential information for policymakers seeking to formulate sustainable economic policies while
alleviating climate change effects.