The scale of the severity of graduate unemployment in a fragile state like Somalia
prompts the need for modelling factors related to the unemployment exit
duration. Hence, this study aimed to model the determinants of graduate
unemployment exit duration. More specifically, it determined the factors that have
effects on the probability of escaping from the unemployment status. Data
collected from students who graduated from SIMAD University in Somalia were
analysed, using the duration model. Particularly, this paper utilised product-limit
estimator and Cox proportional hazards model to model the prognostic factors
influencing the probability of leaving the unemployment status. Gender, CGPA,
part-time job experience, type of degree, and age were found to have significant
JOURNAL OF SOMALI STUDIES:
Research on Somalia and the Greater Horn of African
Countries
Indexed by: SCOPUS, IBSS, EBSCO, COPERNICUS, ERIH PLUS, ProQuest, JGate and SABINET
Volume 9, (Number 2), August, 2022
Pp 39-57
Modelling the Determinants of Unemployment…
40
effects on the probability of escaping from unemployment. Male graduates were
1.47 times more likely to increase their chances of employability than their female
counterparts while graduates with part-time job experience were 2.81 more likely
to escape from unemployment than graduates without part-time job experience.
Similarly, graduates with a higher CGPA were 1.54 times more likely to get
employment than those with a low CGPA.