Assessing the effects of climate change and political instability on sorghum production: Empirical evidence from Somalia

Climate change induces a devastating effect on agricultural production in Somalia leading to crop yield to decline
including sorghum. To this end, this study aims to ascertain the long-term and casual impacts of climate change –
rainfall and temperature – on sorghum production in Somalia for the 1980–2017 period while accounting for the role of political instability, land under sorghum production, and agricultural labor. The empirical result dem-onstrates that average temperature, political instability and agricultural labor significantly hamper sorghum production in Somalia in the long-run, whereas average rainfall – albeit insignificantly – and area under sorghum production enhance sorghum production in the long-run. In contrast, a unidirectional causality is established from political instability to sorghum production. Based on empirical results, the study recommends to policy-makers enact policies aimed to eliminate conflicts to create a stable environment, and establishing a crop diversification plan in land under cultivation that would eliminate volatility caused by climatic and biological variations and accelerate the shift from low-productivity to a high-productivity economy.