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Assessing the long- and short-run effects of climate change and institutional quality on economic growth in Somalia

Warsame, Abdimalik Ali (2023) Assessing the long- and short-run effects of climate change and institutional quality on economic growth in Somalia. OPEN ACCESS.

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Abstract

Abstract
Climate change is considered one of the most defining challenges in this century because it poses a
threat to the health and well-being of every person in the world by posing a large aggregate risk to the
economy. Developing and least developed countries such as Somalia are the most vulnerable countries
to climate change consequences. Besides the vulnerability to climate change, government institutions
in Somalia have been malfunctioning since 1991 hence affecting economic growth. Hence, this
empirical work addresses the long-and short-run effects of institutional quality and climate change on
economic growth in Somalia for the period 1985–2017 using the autoregressive distributed lag model
(ARDL), Johansen and Juselius Cointegration, and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS). The
empirical results found that institutional quality and climate change are cointegrated into economic
growth in the long run. Furthermore, average rainfall, instutional quality , and capital stimulate
economic growth in Somalia in the long run; whereas the average temperature has a devastating effect
on economic growth in the long run. These results are robust for various econometric methods.
However, the study proposes implementing policies related to climate adaptability and mitigation
strategies, and improving institutional quality such as; law and order, government effectiveness, and
bureaucratic quality, as these will confirm sustainable economic growth in the long run.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: A General Works > AC Collections. Series. Collected works
Divisions: Faculty of Economics
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email crd@smiad.edu.so
Date Deposited: 20 Sep 2025 12:19
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2025 12:19
URI: https://repository.simad.edu.so/id/eprint/384

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