Short-term Forecasting of Cumulative Confirmed Covid-19 Cases Pandemic in Somalia

Abstract
Somalia has recorded the first confirmed Covid-19 case and first death case on March 16, and April 08, 2020, respectively. Since
its arrival, it had infected 2,603 people and took the lives of 88 people while 577 patients were recovered as of 14 June, 2020. To
fight this pandemic, the government requires to make the necessary plans accordingly. To plan effectively, the government needs
to answer this question: what will be the effect of Covid-19 cases in the country? To answer this question accurately and
objectively, forecasting the spread of confirmed Covid-19 cases will be vital. To this regard, this paper provides real times
forecasts of Covid-19 cases employing Holt's linear trend model without seasonality. Provided that the data employed is accurate
and the past pattern of the disease will continue in the future, this model is powerful to produce real time forecasts in the future
with some degree of uncertainty. With the help of these forecasts, the government can make evidence based decisions by utilizing
the scarce resource available at its disposal