Examining the Effects of Climate Change and Political Instability on Maize Production in Somalia

Agricultural production is sensirive to climate variabilities, so climate change-agriculture sector nexus is topical in developing countries. Given that, this study models the impact of climate change variables – rainfall and temperature – on maize production in Somalia. The study also incorporates political instability as a main determinant variable of maize production. Several econometric methodologies – Johansen and juselius cointegration, Fully modified ordinary least square(FMOLS), Canonical cointegration regression(CCR), variance decomposition(VD) and impulse response function(IRF) – were espoused with a time series data spanning between 1980 and 2018. The empirical results of Johansen and juselius cointegration show that the explanatory variables are cointegrated to the maize output in the long-run. The study also revealed that average temperature and political instability significantly inhibit maize production in the long-run. Whereas rainfall has a favourable effect on maize production in the long-run. Furthermore, land degradation and land area under maize cultivation – incorporated in the model as control variables – are observed to have positive effects on maize production in the long-run. Based on these findings, the study emphesizes the importane of the de-escalation of conflicts and the implementation of irrigation facilities which will enhance the prdocutiivity of maize crop production.