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Exploring the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts: evidence from selected sub‑Saharan African countries

Abdi, Abdikafi Hassan (2023) Exploring the effects of climate change and government stability on internal conflicts: evidence from selected sub‑Saharan African countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research.

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Abstract

Climate change has been linked to water scarcity, land degradation, and food insecurity, exacerbating existing tensions and
creating new conflicts in countries with weak political institutions. Despite the critical need for effective conflict management and climate adaptation measures, prior studies failed to emphasize the role climate change plays in civil clashes in
conflict-affected countries. In this research, we undertake a comprehensive investigation of the effects of climate change
and government stability on internal conflicts in 14 selected SSA nations between 1996 and 2016. The study embraces
contemporary heterogeneous panel techniques to address heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence issues that usually appear in panel data estimates. We employed second-generation unit root tests, such as CADF and CIPS, to determine
the order of integration of the variables. In addition, Pedroni and Westerlund cointegration tests confirmed the long-run
relationship among the variables. Although temperatures were insignificant, the long-run results of the pooled mean group
(PMG) approach suggested that civil conflicts decline when precipitation increases. In addition, the outcomes indicate that
environmental degradation and population growth are long-run aggravators of social unrest. The short-run results suggest
that rising temperatures exacerbate civil conflicts in the selected SSA countries. However, the study found that government
stability lessens internal conflicts in the short run, but not in the long run. The DOLS technique validated the long-run
outcomes of the PMG technique. Based on the findings of the study, conflict-prone SSA countries should integrate climate
change adaptation and conflict prevention strategies, implement sustainable water resource management practices, and
endorse climate-related conflict resolution.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: A General Works > AC Collections. Series. Collected works
Divisions: Faculty of Economics
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email crd@smiad.edu.so
Date Deposited: 10 Sep 2025 12:26
Last Modified: 10 Sep 2025 12:26
URI: https://repository.simad.edu.so/id/eprint/44

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