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Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL model

Mohamud, Mohamud Hussein (2025) Analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on deforestation in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL model. COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE.

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Abstract

Somalia, a country challenged by ongoing conflict and economic instability, faces sig
nificant environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. This study investigates
the effects of key macroeconomic variables, economic growth, population growth,
and inflation, on deforestation from 1993 to 2021. Using the Autoregressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the analysis explores both short- and long-term rela
tionships. Stationarity of variables was tested through ADF, PP, and Zivot-Andrews
unit root tests, while diagnostic tests ensured the robustness of the model. The results
confirm the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, indicating that economic
growth initially intensifies deforestation but later contributes to its decline after a criti
cal GDP level. Population growth is found to significantly drive deforestation in the
long run, whereas inflation shows no notable impact. These findings underscore the
need for policies that foster sustainable economic growth, manage population pres
sures, and conserve natural resources. The study recommends integrated strategies,
including community-based initiatives and regulatory reforms, to promote environ
mental sustainability in Somalia

Item Type: Article
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GA Mathematical geography. Cartography
Divisions: Faculty of Economics
Depositing User: Unnamed user with email crd@smiad.edu.so
Date Deposited: 10 Sep 2025 15:07
Last Modified: 10 Sep 2025 15:07
URI: https://repository.simad.edu.so/id/eprint/91

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